The November 5 election gave us a new administration and congress, with their own priorities for health policy and legislation.
In this webinar, McDermott+’s Debbie Curtis and Rodney Whitlock discussed the outcomes of the election, how to prepare your organization for policy changes under the new administration and congress, and the implications of election outcomes on healthcare policy going into the lame duck session of congress and 2025.
Top takeaways included:
- A large rightward shift in almost every state will likely give Republicans a trifecta. President Trump won all seven swing states and has been re-elected, and Republicans have gained control of the US Senate with a likely margin of 53 – 47. Control of the US House of Representatives is not known yet, but it is projected that Republicans will hold the chamber with a 220 – 215 margin. An election day exit poll found that 72% of voters were angry or dissatisfied, which may partially explain this result. Worldwide, electorates in developed markets have swung away from incumbents in the wake of pandemic inflation. Combined with issues at the border and Republican messaging about abortion being left to the states, that dissatisfaction allowed Trump to create a racially diverse coalition of non-college-degree voters who are upset with the status quo.
- Expect very little in any end-of-year package. Congress is returning for the lame duck session and will now hold leadership elections and address a few must-dos: disaster relief for Hurricanes Helene and Milton; funding the government before the December 20, 2024, deadline; and extending expiring healthcare policies, including community health center funding and Medicare telehealth flexibilities. A short-term funding extension into early 2025 is likely, so that Republicans can wait for their majority to be installed before negotiating a package.
- Republicans will try to accomplish as much as they can in the next two years. President-elect Trump is already a lame duck president (meaning he cannot run for re-election, having served a previous first term). That means he will need to pursue an aggressive agenda to get as much done as possible over the next two years while he still has control of Congress (before the 2026 midterm elections) and before Members of Congress shift focus to their own re-election needs and the next presidential election – a shift that normally happens in the second two years of a presidential term.
- Can Republicans effectively govern? The immediate question is whether congressional Republicans will be able to effectively govern in the majority, particularly with a slim House margin. With Trump in the White House, they should have more unity than was presented over the past two years in the House. However, significant barriers could arise if policies move from the House to the Senate and then must be watered down to secure enough Democratic votes to meet a 60-vote threshold. For that reason, the filibuster may be in danger. A Trump Administration is unlikely to be okay with giving Minority Leader Schumer (D-NY) veto power over border security legislation, for instance.
- Personnel is policy. For the Trump Administration, the individuals hired for key health roles in the Administration will greatly influence health policy. Healthcare policies that the Trump Administration is likely to prioritize include Medicaid work requirements, restructuring of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institutes for Health, and decreasing insurance regulation to provide alternatives to Affordable Care Act marketplace coverage. Medicare site neutral payments also have a higher probability of moving forward in a fully Republican-controlled Congress.
- There will be shuffling in congressional leadership and some key healthcare committees. Senate Republicans are currently competing for the majority leader slot (with that vote expected on November 12, 2024), but the rest of congressional leadership will likely stay the same. However, there will be some shakeups on key healthcare committees. In the Senate, Republicans will become the majority and will control committee agendas. If committee margins stay the same, the Finance Committee will still see five new Democrats and probably one new Republican. On the House Energy & Commerce Committee, there will be a new Republican full committee chair, which may lead to a new Health Subcommittee chair as well. Rep. Diana DeGette is widely expected to become the ranking Democrat on the Health Subcommittee. Republicans and Democrats will add members to the committee roster mainly because of retirements from Congress.
For more on how the election results will impact health policymaking, visit our Election 2024 Resource Center.
When:
November 8, 2024 | 1:30 – 2:30 PM
Where:
Webinar
