Election years bring change and complexity to the health policy landscape in Congress and the executive branch. The upcoming US presidential election will bring with it a new administration, with its own priorities for healthcare policy.
In this webinar, McDermott+’s Debbie Curtis and Rodney Whitlock discussed potential outcomes of the election, how to prepare your organization for policy changes under either administration, and the potential implications of the election outcome on healthcare policy.
Top takeaways included:
- This will be a closely divided election (and electorate). At the presidential level, the election will be decided in seven states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada), all of which are essentially toss-ups right now. Maintaining majority control of the US Senate is an uphill climb for Democrats, as they are defending seats in the eight key races that are in play. In contrast, it is an uphill battle for Republicans to maintain control of the US House of Representatives, where they hold a four-seat margin for their majority today. Only about 70 races in the House are competitive, and Democrats hold the edge in more of those than Republicans do. Key issues are immigration, abortion, and the economy, although it is hard to know what might sway the small number of undecided voters who will determine this election. What we do know is that the electorate is more divided than ever – not just in their opinions, but in their communities as well.
- Election outcomes will impact what is accomplished in lame duck. Congress is scheduled to return to session on November 12, 2024. Regardless of election outcomes, the current Congress will need to address a few must-dos: disaster relief for Hurricanes Helene and Milton; funding the government before the December 20, 2024, deadline; and extending expiring healthcare policies, including community health center funding and Medicare telehealth flexibilities. While many stakeholders have priorities that they hope Congress will address as part of end-of-the-year legislating, it is unlikely that this lame duck will produce a significant omnibus package. Such a package would require a surprising outbreak of cooperation in the waning days of the 118th Congress, which has seen very little of that.
- The next Administration and 119th Congress will have several healthcare issues on the horizon. These include the next round of Medicare prescription drug negotiations in early 2025, hitting the debt ceiling in mid-2025, the expiration of the Affordable Care Act enhanced premium tax credits at the end of 2025, and the expiration of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts in the beginning of 2026. How the next Administration chooses to deal with these pending deadlines will influence what Congress does on healthcare as well, and will depend on the outcomes of this election, particularly because three of the four issues require congressional action.
- Low-cost bipartisan proposals will be the focus of a divided Congress. The most likely election outcome is that both chambers will flip, an extremely uncommon occurrence. If this happens and Congress remains divided, there will probably be no major policy initiatives enacted, much like the relatively unproductive 118th. However, that doesn’t mean healthcare is off the table. The parties might agree to legislate in certain areas, such as pharmacy benefit manager reform, Medicare Advantage oversight or policy changes, Medicare site neutral payment policies, and Medicare physician payment reform.
For more on how the election cycle will impact health policymaking, visit our Election 2024 Resource Center and register for our Post-Election Health Policy Priorities webinar on November 8, 2024.
When:
October 24, 2024 | 12:00 – 1:00 PM
Where:
Webinar
